oracle feed methodology

Selection rules

Fresh CVEs: first 5 by NVD-reported published date among CVEs published yesterday (UTC) and visible to the NVD 2.0 API at batch time, excluding CVEs already in the CISA KEV catalog
Show HN: 10 most recent Show HN posts created within roughly 6 hours of collect time, excluding posts already at 30 or more points
HackerOne disclosures: all HackerOne reports disclosed within 24 hours of collect time that carry a CWE, newest first

Question batteries

Fresh CVEs

{
  "version": 1,
  "questions": {
    "kev_within_90d": {
      "type": "noul",
      "instructions": "Will this CVE be added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog within 90 days?",
      "criteria": {
        "true": "The CVE ID is added to the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog within 90 days of this forecast; CISA lists it because there is reliable evidence of exploitation in the wild.",
        "false": "Ninety days pass after this forecast without the CVE ID appearing in the CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog."
      }
    }
  }
}

Show HN

{
  "version": 2,
  "questions": {
    "points_30_within_48h": {
      "type": "noul",
      "instructions": "Will this Show HN post have 30 or more points when checked at or after 48 hours?",
      "criteria": {
        "true": "The post's score on Hacker News is 30 points or higher at the first check on or after 48 hours from this forecast.",
        "false": "The post's score stays below 30 points at the first check on or after 48 hours from this forecast."
      }
    }
  }
}

HackerOne disclosures

{
  "version": 1,
  "questions": {
    "same_cwe_disclosed_30d": {
      "type": "noul",
      "instructions": "Will a publicly disclosed HackerOne report with the same CWE be disclosed for a different program within 30 days of this report's disclosure?",
      "criteria": {
        "true": "Within 30 days after this report's disclosure date, at least one other publicly disclosed HackerOne report shares its CWE and belongs to a different program.",
        "false": "No publicly disclosed HackerOne report with the same CWE appears under a different program within 30 days of this report's disclosure."
      }
    }
  }
}

Baselines

Every prediction freezes a baseline record {value, method, window} measuring the same event over the same window the prediction resolves on; the method string on the entry states the sampling rule. Samples below the minimum fall back to a stated constant.

slot	window	min sample	fallback
Fresh CVEs	90d after NVD publish	100	0.05
Show HN	48h after post creation	20	0.3
HackerOne disclosures	30d after anchor disclosure	5	0.3

Resolution rules

Fresh CVEs: resolves true when the CVE enters the CISA KEV catalog within 90 days of issue (by KEV dateAdded), false when 90 days pass with no entry
Show HN: resolves by the Algolia item endpoint at the first pass at least 48 hours after issue: true at 30 or more points, false below, unresolved if the item is gone
HackerOne disclosures: resolves true when a report with the same CWE is disclosed for a different program within 30 days of the anchor report's disclosure, unresolved when the window closes with no match

Methodology